Thursday, January 3, 2013


Fiscally Miffed…How to Invest in 2013  Depends on YOU! …The U.S. is the Best Country in the World!...Beware the Risks in Bonds.

By: Jay D. Ahlbeck, CLU, ChFC


What Just Happened on Capitol Hill? On November 28, 2012 I wrote “Do not be surprised if Democrats and Republicans hold hands and jump off the “fiscal cliff” together…It makes political sense.”  True to form a deal was made on January 1, 2013 after provisions of the fiscal cliff went into effect.

Technically, despite what you may read, the agreement has no new taxes because it was executed after rates automatically went up on January first.  Hence, it avoids the major Republican bugaboo of new taxes. 

Remember George Bush the elder and “read my lips”?  All politicians do.

Yes, families with income over $450,000 will pay higher taxes but they are the exact taxes that automatically went into effect on January 1, 2013.  While the agreement provides 99% of the country a tax reduction, those that earn $450,000 and above (400,000 for individuals) received no change in the rate that went into effect on January 1, 2013.  You can bet that Republicans will go home and claim they did not vote for any new taxes and reduced taxes on 99% of the country and the Democrats will also claim victory having raised taxes on the top 1% as they said they would. Although contradictory, both statements will be technically correct.  

Markets are delighted that Congress was able to agree on anything and that the possibility of complete inaction and chaos has been removed.

Although the deal did clarify important tax issues, the real big and difficult challenges have once again been kicked down the road for another day (national debt, tax reform, Social Security, Medicaid and Medicare reforms are the true challenges ahead). Next stop, the “debt ceiling” debate.  


If You Need to Take Risk Get Off the Sidelines and Place Your Bets! The global economy is fragile, many things remain crooked, uncertainty reigns supreme, but that is all currently being trumped by global stimulus.

Massive and unprecedented amounts of money continue to be printed by central banks and are flooding the financial system with cash (i.e. liquidity). All that money has to go somewhere. Stocks, real estate, commodities are all likely beneficiaries, but this is a grand manipulation and in some sense not “real”.

It is often said, “do not fight the Fed.” and the Fed. is purposely making it painful to hold low risk assets.  Park your money in bank CDs or US Treasuries and your real return (after inflation) will be negative. 

All the liquidity sloshing around the world can rush into and out of any asset in the short-term, but as long as the Fed. continues to push $85 billion of new money into the markets each month the trend for many asset will almost certainly be up. Rising tides of liquidity raise all ships.  Asset prices are going up because the U.S. Federal reserve says so.  Until the Fed. reverses course, or until all this money printing backfires it is hard to see what will stop asset prices from trending upward.


The U.S. is the Best Country in the World! Right now it looks as though the United States may win the financial crisis.  Being the least dirty shirt may not be reason for celebration, but many around the world today envy what we view as a tepid 2.5% projected GDP growth. Although Europe has avoided, for now, a financial collapse the relative health of their financial system has not translated into economic health on “Main Street”.  O% GDP growth and high unemployment is discouraging the people of Europe while here in the U.S. we can point to glimmers of hope.

We need to protect what continues to make this country so great.  Many of the best and the brightest around the world still want to bring their families and their talents to the United States and make a go of it. Yes the story of the United States is a story of immigration. 

The United States, at it’s founding, was the first country in the world not to have an official religion.  Religious tolerance continues to set us apart.

What makes our justice system so great is not that it guarantees justice, but that it gives everyone a chance at justice. People are drawn to a country based on the rule of law.

Our economic system of innovation and opportunity is possibly the greatest asset of all.  Anywhere in the world, if you want to bet on your own future, the United States continues to be the place to be. 

These attributes make the foundation of the American Dream and what we all want to pass down to our children and grandchildren.  We want a country and economic system built on integrity that rewards hard work and ingenuity.

As we begin the New Year with great hope for the future let’s focus our efforts on what makes this country great.  Our traditions of immigration, religious tolerance, rule of law, and a fair and equitable economic system all need to be re-enforced and strengthened. If we allow these distinguishing factors to deteriorate we lose the American DNA.

Beware of Bonds. Retail investors have shifted away from stocks and indiscriminately piled into bonds, often chasing safety and yield.  Rising interest rates hurt Bond values.  The Federal Reserve today holds rates artificially low.  Rates have trended lower for over 20 years. Despite being viewed by many as low risk bonds are likely riskier than stocks right now.  Beware of bonds.  

Thursday, December 13, 2012

The Federal Reserve Goes All In... Can You say Bubble?... Strawberry Fields (Low Interest Rates), Forever?... The "Free" is Missing from our Free Markets... Holding Hands and Jumping Off the Cliff.

By Jay D. Ahlbeck, President, JDA & Associates

The Federal Reserve (Fed.) is still buying $85 billion of assets each month with no end in sight.  Economists now predict a $4 Trillion Fed. balance sheet by the end of 2013. In the chart below the green represents the Fed. buying its own paper, at times accounting for 70% of the market in U.S. Treasuries. Maybe the Fed. is sly as a fox, but another viewpoint is that at some level this is insane.


Chart of the US Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

All that money has to go somewhere and in our opinion many asset prices will be pushed up as long as the Fed, along with other central banks, continue to plow money into the global economy. We do not, however, believe that true wealth can be created out of thin air by printing money and view this as a high stakes game of roulette. 

Interest rates will stay artificially low until the Fed. decides otherwise. The Fed. has been responsible for purchasing as much as 70% of the treasury market supply (buying their own paper) so they in affect set the rates by buying supply until the rate is where they want it. 

If you are a believer in free markets, these are not free markets but are the reality that we live and invest in.

Do not be surprised if the Democrats and Republicans hold hands and jump off the cliff together.  This makes political sense as they can quickly "rescue" us from their own doing with tax cuts and spending increases after the draconian measures of the "cliff" go into effect. Both sides then claim victory. Washington has learned that financial crisis provides good political cover and if there is short-term financial chaos for political gain you can bet our politicians are up to the challenge.  We may just need a good crisis to get the logjam broken.











Wednesday, November 28, 2012


Fiscal Cliff Boogie Man: Political Theater and Distraction
by Jay D. Ahlbeck, President, JDA & Associates

Do not be surprised if Democrats and Republicans hold hands and jump off the “fiscal cliff” together.  There will be gnashing of the teeth, wailing in the streets and markets will swoon. Those living off government largess will scream like stuck pigs and rich people (however you care to define that) will say they will not play with poor people anymore if their taxes are going to be this high. Rice bowls will appear to be broken, but not really.

Going over the cliff makes political sense. The resulting higher taxes and draconian spending cuts, will allow both parties to compromise and claim victory. Democrats will take claim to increasing “investments” after the newly imposed cuts and the Republicans will claim that they have reduced taxes from the newly imposed levels. 

We all give a heavy sigh of relief, everyone is happy and nobody losses. Right?

After “Fiscal Cliff” get ready for its sequel “Son of Fiscal Cliff”, the coming “debt ceiling” debate.  The sad truth is that what goes on in the local mall this December is likely more meaningful than the actions in Washington, so I suggest that investors try to close their eyes as the next few weeks are going to be ugly, but before Spring has arrived this too will pass.  Between now and then, expect ugly.